Market Analysis Review

Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 22.10.2024

| 22 October, 2024 at 10:51 GMT

EURUSD

EURUSD was little changed this morning, trading at $1.0820, the lowest in ten weeks. ECB’s President Lagarde will deliver a speech later today, however Lagarde is unlikely to change her outlook after ECB cut the rates last week.

The last major support was just executed this morning amid tight range of trading. Last support represents re-entry point as well, targeting $1.0860 then $1.0880 ( day traders). One week forecast poll showed 40% bullish & 60% bearish.

USDJPY

USDJPY advanced & traded higher today at 150.94, the highest in almost three months after the US 10Y bond yields increased again above 4.20%. While the Japanese officials kept talking about the currency developments, no intervention yet. Yen weakness was mainly due to USD strength & higher US yields, so as long as the US bond yields remain elevated, this currency pair will not fall unless BoJ intervenes again.

The last major resistance was done, new target was added. Market sentiments still support USD strength by 75%, and only 25% in a bearish attitude. 1H RSI is overbought, so prepare for short-lived correction to 150 (if any).

GBPUSD

This currency pair slightly increased today to $1.30, waiting for BoE’s governor Bailey speech later today. This speech is important as it comes after ECB rate cut in the last week, and the outlook for a rate cut in the UK sooner than later, his speech will be at 13:25 GMT. Dovish stance by BoE’s governor will keep the pressure on the Pound.

Not far from the support level (re-entry point ) , price action started moving higher, targeting $1.3050 , supported by bullish stance by day traders.

Gold

Again, gold maintained its fully bullish attitude, traded higher today at a new record high $2735 per ounce. Gold’s last rally was driven by central banks’ purchasing of gold, outlook of weaker rates globally and global debts that kept skyrocketing while the confidence weakened in the traditional monetary system & increased in the tangible assets, mainly gold. We will keep an eye on the US PMI numbers & Fed beige book later this week.

Last major resistance was executed, new one added. Correction was aggressive yesterday from $2739 to $2715, so be careful in your risk exposure. Markets’ sentiments were mixed today, not fully bullish nor bearish.

Silver

Silver gained by another 1% today & traded higher at $34.17 per ounce, the highest in 12 years. Traders & readers should realize that this bullish momentum in silver may fade if China’s economic numbers disappoint again & miss China’s government targets. PMI numbers in manufacturing from the US , UK & EZ will be vital in silver’s short-outlook, it will be released on Thursday.

New resistance was added, supported by positive momentum & bullish price action. $33.60 is an important support, strong volatility will persist.

Oil – WTI

Both crude oil benchmarks fell today, WTI $69.72PB, Brent $73.95PB. API will release the US weekly crude oil inventories,  it fell by -1.5 million barrels two weeks before. At the same time, OPEC will restore its output in December which means that the oil supply my increase again. If PMI manufacturing numbers miss the estimates after two days, oil is likely to remain under pressure.

Not far from the 1st support that was already executed yesterday, trend index remains bearish for now with only 25% bullish in the forecast polls ( 1 week). Correction to $70.30 is possible (likely).

DAX40

DAX fell on Monday, closed lower by -0.9% to 19480, DAX futures traded higher today at 19547. What happened yesterday was not a change in markets’ behavior, it was highly expected as a minor profit taking. Adidas lost -2.3% yesterday, followed by -1% Allianz, and -1.7% in Merck . German Bundesbank president will deliver a speech later today, waiting for PMI on Thursday.

According to yesterday’s price action, take-profit may continue to 19300. Trend index remains bullish with weaker volatility.

Nasdaq

US stock indexes were mixed on Monday, Dow Jones fell by -0.8%, SPX -0.18% while Nasdaq gained 0.27% supported by strong gains in the tech sector. No major economic releases from the US for today and only Richmond Fed manufacturing index. In the meantime, Q3 earnings continued, with GM & Lockheed Martin will report the results later today.

Technical correction was almost muted, the price action is not yet fully bearish. 1H RSI is cautiously increasing again amid a tight range of trading. Price cation is heading higher to 20500 again, but volatility index is low.

Bitcoin

BTCUSD traded unchanged today at $67525, Eth fell to $2642, Cardano gained 1% and Solana added 0.9% to $168.18. According to Coin Shares, crypto investment products record $2.2 billion in weekly inflows with BTC & Eth driving the surge. At the same time, CFTC chair discussed crypto regulations challenges and AI integration.

15 minutes chart is somehow bearish, but the forecasts poll was bullish in the last week, with 50% bullish & 25% bearish. $69 is the next major target, $66700 is support.